[1]许秀川,温涛,张卫国.耕地面积、劳动供给、工资水平与城镇化的非线性关系——一个理论模型及其门槛面板数据的实证[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2016,16(03):101-110.
 XU Xiuchuan,WEN Tao,ZHANG Weiguo.Farming Area, Labor Supply and Wage’s Non-Linear Relationship with Urbanization in China: A Theory Model and Its Empirical Analysis Via Threshold Panel Data Method[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2016,16(03):101-110.
点击复制

耕地面积、劳动供给、工资水平与城镇化的非线性关系——一个理论模型及其门槛面板数据的实证()
分享到:

南京农业大学学报(社科版)[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
16
期数:
2016年03期
页码:
101-110
栏目:
农业经济
出版日期:
2016-04-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Farming Area, Labor Supply and Wage’s Non-Linear Relationship with Urbanization in China: A Theory Model and Its Empirical Analysis Via Threshold Panel Data Method
作者:
许秀川 温涛 张卫国
西南大学 经济管理学院/农村金融与农业现代化研究院, 重庆 400715
Author(s):
XU Xiuchuan WEN Tao ZHANG Weiguo
关键词:
城镇化农民收入耕地面积门槛效应
分类号:
F291.1
摘要:
以农户收益最大化为微观基础,从体现小农经济的城乡经济均衡入手,构建相应的城镇化理论模型,得到城乡劳动力均衡就业比重与相关影响因素的关系,分析耕地面积、劳动人口、城镇工资水平等存在较大的异质性的条件下,各因素对城乡均衡就业比重可能存在门槛效应,通过门槛面板数据对模型进行了实证检验,结果表明门槛效应的确存在。劳均耕地面积太小、要素集聚水平低,不利于农村劳动力的释放和城镇化的推进,提高城镇工资水平,保持适度人口增长与劳动力供给将有利于城镇化的发展。因此,本文认为应提高农业要素的集聚水平和农民工工资水平;推动现代化进程与工业反哺农业;同时,加快生育政策的改革,保持平稳的劳动力供给水平。
Abstract:
Based on the micro foundation of maximizing the farmers’ income and the urban and rural economic equilibrium of traditional agricultural economy, this paper constructs a theoretical model of urbanization, obtains the relationship between urban and rural labor employment equilibrium with their determining factors,and analyzes the main factors affecting the equilibrium employment and their possible threshold effects under the condition that there are large heterogeneity among arable land, labor force, and urban wages. Econometric analysis of threshold panel data shows that the threshold effects do exist. Small arable lands, low-level of factors agglomeration are not conducive to the release of the rural labor force and the advance of urbanization. Increasing urban wages and maintaining moderate population growth and labor supply will be beneficial to the development of urbanization. According to theoretical and empirical results, this paper argues that we should increase the agglomeration level of agricultural production factors and the wages for migrant workers, and promote the process of modernization and industry nurturing agriculture, and meanwhile speed up the reform of family planning policy and maintain a stable labor supply.

参考文献/References:

[1] 陆铭,蒋仕卿,陈钊,等.摆脱城市化的低水平均衡——制度推动、社会互动与劳动力流动[J].复旦学报:社会科学版,2013(3):48-64.
[2] 陆铭,陈钊.城市化、城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距[J].经济研究,2004(4):50-58.
[3] 陆铭,向宽虎,陈钊.中国城市化和城市体系调整:基于文献的评论[J].世界经济,2011(6):3-25.
[4] Yao S. Chinas Rural Economy in the First Decade of the 21st Century: Problems and Growth Constraints [J]. China Economic Review, 2002,13(12): 354-360.
[5] Wu Z, Yao S. Intermigration and Intramigration in China:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis[J]. China Economic Review,2003,14(8):371-385.
[6] Hertel T, Zhan F, Wang Z. Implicationof WTO Accession for Poverty in China[C]// Bhattasali D, Li S,Martin W. China and the WTO: Accession, Policy Reform and Poverty Strategies. World Band and Oxford University, Washington D C,2004.
[7] Chen R, Ye C, Cai Y, Xing X, Chen Q. The Impact of Rural Out-migration on Land Use Transition in China: Past, Present and Trend [J]. Land Use Policy,2014,40(9):101-110.
[8] Cervini-Plá M, Ramos X, Silva J. Wage Effects of Non-wage Labor Costs[J].European Economic Review, 2014,72 (11):113-137.
[9] Song H, Thisse J, Zhu X. Urbanization and/or Rural Industrialization in China[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2012, 42(1):126-134.
[10] Brauw A, Rozelle S. Migration and Household Investment in Rural China [J]. China Economic Review, 2008,19(1):320-335.
[11] 顾海英,史清华,程英,等.现阶段"新二元结构"问题缓解的制度与政策——基于上海外来农民工的调研[J]. 管理世界,2011(11):55-65.
[12] 顾骅珊.破解城乡"双二元结构":基于浙江嘉兴的经验研究[J].农业经济问题,2013(2):99-105.
[13] 陈宗胜,黎德福.内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型——对"东亚奇迹"和中国经济的再解释[J]. 经济研究,2004(11):16-27.
[14] 郭涛,宋德勇.农村劳动力转移的二元经济内生增长模型[J].南方经济,2006(8):77-84.
[15] 伍山林.刘易斯模型适用性考察[J].财经研究,2008(8):4-16.
[16] 叶春辉,许庆,徐志刚.农地细碎化的缘由与效应[J].农业经济问题,2008(9):9-15.
[17] 王秀清,苏旭霞.农用地细碎化对农业生产的影响——以山东省莱西市为例[J].农业技术经济,2002(2):2-7.
[18] 连雪君,毛雁冰.土地细碎化必然导致土地生产效率降低?——对土地细碎化与土地生产效率研究的批判性分析[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版,2013(6):109-115.
[19] 李功奎,钟甫宁.农地细碎化、劳动力利用与农民收入——基于江苏省经济欠发达地区的实证研究[J].中国农村经济,2006(4):42-18.
[20] 许庆,田士超,徐志刚,等.农地制度、土地细碎化与农民收入不平等[J].经济研究,2008(2):83-92.
[21] 吕晓,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.中国农地细碎化问题研究进展[J].自然资源学报,2011(3):530-540.
[22] 蔡昉.刘易斯转折点后的农业发展政策选择[J].中国农村经济,2008(8):4-15.
[23] 秦立建,张妮妮,蒋中一.土地细碎化、劳动力转移与中国农户粮食生产——基于安徽省的调查[J]. 农业技术经济,2011(11):16-23.
[24] 徐清.工资"拉力"与城市劳动力流入峰值——基于"推拉"理论的中国经济实证[J].财经科学,2012(10):37-45.
[25] 西奥多 舒尔茨.改造传统农业[M].梁小民,译.北京:商务印书馆,1987:24-29.
[26] Hansen B.Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation[J]. Econometrica, 2000,68(3):575-603.
[27] Gregorya A, Hansen B. Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1996,70(1):99-126.
[28] Hansen B. Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing and Inference [J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1997,93(2):345-368.

相似文献/References:

[1]聂伟,王小璐.人力资本、家庭禀赋与农民的城镇定居意愿——基于CGSS2010数据库资料分析[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2014,(05):53.
[2]龙开胜.集体建设用地指标交易能否增加农民收入——一个整体性框架及初步经验证据[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2015,15(05):87.
 LONG Kaisheng.Does Collective Construction Land Quota Transaction Increase Peasants’ Income? An Integrated Framework and Preliminary Empirical Evidences[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2015,15(03):87.
[3]韩庆龄.农业经营模式的路径选择:基于村庄基础与农民诉求的双重视角——以江汉平原P村为个案[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2015,15(05):95.
 HAN Qingling.Choice of Agriculture Management Model: From Dual Perspectives of Village Foundation and Farmers’ Demands and Based on a Case of Village P in Jianghan Plain[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2015,15(03):95.
[4]李烊,刘祖云.拆迁安置社区变迁逻辑的理论解释——基于“制度-生活”的分析框架[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2016,16(06):34.
 LI Yang,LIU Zuyun.A Theoretical Explanation of Resettlement Community’s Changing Logic: Based on ‘System-life’ Analysis Frame[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2016,16(03):34.
[5]饶芳萍,马贤磊,石晓平.土地产权安全性对生态友好型农业项目增收绩效的影响——以新疆林果套种项目为例[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2016,16(06):96.
 RAO Fangping,MA Xianlei,SHI Xiaoping.Impact of Land Tenure Security on Income Improvement Efficiency of Eco-friendly Agricultural Program: a Case Study on Crop-tree Intercroppingin Xinjiang[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2016,16(03):96.
[6]张建雷.接力式进城:代际支持与农民城镇化的成本分担机制研究——基于皖东溪水镇的调查[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2017,17(05):10.
 ZHANG Jianlei.Relay to the Town:Inter-Generational Support and Cost-Sharing Mechanism of Peasant Fam-ily’s Urbanization:Based on Survey in Xishui Town, East Anhui Province[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2017,17(03):10.
[7]叶敏.城镇化进程中的新农村建设:社会动员及其治理功效——对皖南东镇的历时性观察[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2017,17(05):21.
 YE Min.New Rural Construction in Urbanization Process:Social Mobilization and Its Governance Func-tion[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2017,17(03):21.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2015-8-20。
基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"新型城镇化包容性发展的路径设计与战略选择"(12&ZD100);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"农民收入超常规增长的要素集聚与战略协同研究"(11&ZD047);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助"新型农业现代化下新型农业社会化服务主体构建研究"(2362015xk03)
作者简介:许秀川,男,西南大学经济管理学院、西南大学农村金融与农业现代化研究院副教授,E-mail:swucc@163.com;温涛,男,西南大学经济管理
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01