[1]刘敬杰,夏敏,刘友兆.基于多主体的省域内补充耕地指标交易风险评价与防控——以江苏省为例[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2018,18(03):113-121.
 LIU Jingjie,XIA Min,Liu Youzhao.On Risk Evaluation and Prevention & Control of Supplementary Cultivated Land Index Trans-action in Provincial Area Based on Multi-agent: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2018,18(03):113-121.
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基于多主体的省域内补充耕地指标交易风险评价与防控——以江苏省为例()
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南京农业大学学报(社科版)[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
18
期数:
2018年03期
页码:
113-121
栏目:
土地问题
出版日期:
2018-05-16

文章信息/Info

Title:
On Risk Evaluation and Prevention & Control of Supplementary Cultivated Land Index Trans-action in Provincial Area Based on Multi-agent: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province
作者:
刘敬杰 夏敏 刘友兆
南京农业大学 公共管理学院, 江苏 南京 210095
Author(s):
LIU Jingjie XIA Min Liu Youzhao
关键词:
多主体补充耕地指标交易风险评价防控
分类号:
F301.2
摘要:
从补充耕地指标交易参与主体视角出发,运用DSP制度风险研究技术体系识别江苏省补充耕地指标交易工作的风险因子,采用多层次模糊综合评价模型评估指标交易风险及参与主体面临的风险,并提出风险防控措施。研究结果表明,补充耕地指标交易综合风险分值为70.37,虽属较高风险等级,但分值偏低;从参与主体视角分析发现,指标交易中心面临的风险高居首位,指标竞得方政府面临的风险次之,指标出让方政府面临的风险最小,其中前期规划评估风险、后续指标数量风险、非理性竞买风险是各参与主体面临风险的主要原因;据此针对指标出让方政府围绕重视前期规划和风险评估提出了制定相关规划和计划,制定指标交易风险评估体系及相应的对策和实施计划等防控措施,针对指标交易中心围绕后续指标数量问题提出了合理控制年度指标交易规模,加大土地整治力度,探索交易指标来源渠道等防控措施,针对指标竞得方政府围绕理性购买指标提出了风险评估和资金规划、理性报价等防控措施。研究结果为进一步补充耕地指标交易工作及相关土地指标交易工作提供了参考和借鉴。
Abstract:
From the perspective of the three participating agents involved in the transaction in Jiangsu prov-ince, the risk factors of the index transaction and the three participating agents were identified using DSP, the risks of the transaction and the participants were evaluated using multi-level fuzzy compre-hensive evaluation model, and the measures to prevention and control risks were put forward. The re-sults show that:1) The comprehensive risk score of the supplementary cultivated land index transaction in Jiangsu province is 70.63, indicating a higher risk level; 2) From the perspective of the main par-ticipating agents, the risks of the index trading center ranks first, following by the government bidding the index. The main risk factors were the lack of pre-planning and risk evaluation, the decreasing of subsequent index number and the irrational bidding behaviors; 3) Measures of risk prevention and con-trol were put forward:To highlight the importance of pre-planning and risk assessment, the transferor may work out relating planning and corresponding countermeasures, and establish an index system of trading risk assessment; To increase the subsequent index number, the intermediary can control the scale of annual transactions’ index, intensify the land consolidation, and exploreextraindex sources; To realize a rational bidding, the biddersmay carry out risk assessment, financial planning and reasoning quotation in advance. The research results provide a reference for the further work of supplementary cul-tivated land index transaction and related land index transaction.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-06-29。
基金项目:江苏省国土资源厅科技项目"补充耕地指标交易风险分析与防控研究"(2015023);中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科基金项目"基于多主体视角的补充耕地指标交易风险评价"(SK2016024);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"基于多主体视角的乡镇尺度农村土地利用变化模拟"(16YJAZH064)
作者简介:刘敬杰,女,南京农业大学公共管理学院博士生,E-mail:635682484@qq.com
通讯作者:夏敏,女,南京农业大学公共管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,E-mail:xm@njau.edu.cn。
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01