[1]钱龙,钱文荣.外出务工对农户农业生产投资的影响——基于中国家庭动态跟踪调查的实证分析[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2018,18(05):109-121.
　QIAN Long,QIAN Wenrong.The Effect of Off-farm Employment on Farmers Investment Activity in Agriculture: Based on the Analysis of CFPS[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2018,18(05):109-121.
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外出务工对农户农业生产投资的影响——基于中国家庭动态跟踪调查的实证分析()
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南京农业大学学报（社科版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
18
期数:
2018年05期
页码:
109-121
栏目:
农业经济
出版日期:
2018-12-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Effect of Off-farm Employment on Farmers Investment Activity in Agriculture: Based on the Analysis of CFPS
作者:
钱龙1;  钱文荣2
1. 南京财经大学 粮食安全与战略研究中心, 江苏 南京 210003;
2. 浙江大学 中国农村发展研究院, 浙江 杭州 310058
Author(s):
QIAN Long1;  QIAN Wenrong2
关键词:
外出务工; 流动性生产投资; 农业机械投资; CFPS
分类号:
F323.9
摘要:
壮大和发展现代农业离不开对农业的投资，一个普遍的疑虑是，农村劳动力的大量流失很可能会影响农业生产性投资。为了回应上述问题，本文利用中国家庭动态跟踪调查CFPS2012全国大样本数据，从农户家庭层面实证分析了成员外出务工对农户农业生产投资的影响。研究结果表明：（1）外出务工对流动性生产投资有显著负面影响，随着家庭成员外出务工比例的提升，农户会减少这一类投入。（2）与既有文献不同，本文并未发现外出务工能够有效促进农户的农业机械投资。（3）外出务工对流动性生产投资的影响存在区域差异性，但外出务工对农业机械投资的影响不存在区域差异。考虑内生性问题，使用替代变量以及工具变量进行稳健性检验，证实外出务工不利于流动性生产投资，而不影响农业机械投资的结论是可信的。上述结果表明，劳动力外出务工对农业生产投资的负面影响已初步显现，但具体影响还要考虑投资种类和区域差异，不能一概而论。
Abstract:
The growth and development of modern agriculture is inseparable from the investment in agriculture. A common misgiving is that the massive loss of rural labor is likely to affect agricultural productive investment. In order to respond to the above issues, this paper starts from the household level of the households, uses the large sample data of the National CFPS2012, and conducts an empirical analysis about the influence of off-farm employment on the two types of agricultural production investment. The study finds out that:firstly, non-farm payrolls have a significant negative impact on the mobility productive investment, and with the upgrading of rural households non-farm employment rate, farmers will reduce this type of investment. secondly,unlike previous studies, we find out that off-farm employment has no significant effect on investment in agricultural machinery. thirdly, there are regional differences in the impact of migrant workers on the investment of liquidity production, but there is no regional difference in the impact of migrant workers on agricultural machinery investment. Taking into account the endogenous issues, the use of surrogate variables and instrumental variables for robustness tests confirms that the conclusion is credible. The above results show that the negative impact of labor migration on agriculture production investment has already appeared, but the specific impact shall consider investment types and regional differences.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-10-19。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目"社会资本影响下的农民工职业技能投资行为与绩效研究"（71673241）；教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"城乡一体化背景下的新型城镇化问题"（16JJD790054）；国家重点研发计划专项"粮食产后全程不落地收储模式技术应用多维评价体系研究"（2017YFD0401401）
作者简介:钱龙,男,南京财经大学粮食安全与战略研究中心讲师,博士,E-mail:qianlongy101@126.com;钱文荣,男,浙江大学公共管理学院教授,博士生导师。
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01