[1]程广燕,唐振闯,王瑞港.平衡膳食模式下我国粮食需求预测与保障措施研究[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2025,25(03):120-131.
　CHENG Guangyan,TANG Zhenchuang,WANG Ruigang.Research on the Prediction of China’s Grain Demand and Guarantee Measures under the Balanced Dietary Pattern[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2025,25(03):120-131.
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平衡膳食模式下我国粮食需求预测与保障措施研究()
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南京农业大学学报（社科版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
25
期数:
2025年03期
页码:
120-131
栏目:
农业经济
出版日期:
2025-06-06

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on the Prediction of China’s Grain Demand and Guarantee Measures under the Balanced Dietary Pattern
作者:
程广燕;  唐振闯;  王瑞港
农业农村部 食物与营养发展研究所, 北京 100081
Author(s):
CHENG Guangyan;  TANG Zhenchuang;  WANG Ruigang
关键词:
粮食安全; 平衡膳食; 粮食需求预测; 饮食优化; 大食物观
Keywords:
Food Security; Balanced Diet; Food Demand Prediction; Diet Optimization; Greater Food Concept
分类号:
F326
摘要:
粮食安全是国家安全的重要基石。在居民食物消费从“吃饱”向“吃好”转变的背景下,确保粮食供给能够精准匹配居民营养需求、建立与居民食物消费结构相适应的粮食生产结构成为保障粮食安全的必然要求。本研究以当前膳食模式、中国膳食指南推荐模式、日本膳食模式和地中海膳食模式为切入点,分析不同膳食结构下我国中长期粮食需求。在此基础上,进一步设置饮食结构优化与全产业链食物减损情景,测算各情景的粮食需求量。研究结果表明,到2035年,与当前膳食模式相比,采用中国膳食指南推荐模式、日本膳食模式、地中海膳食模式,粮食需求可分别减少10118.5万吨、2792.7万吨、22332.3万吨。进一步优化食物结构并推动食物减损后,还可进一步降低粮食需求超过6300万吨。为此,要践行“大食物观”战略,引导居民合理健康膳食,建立“大粮食”生产统计口径,推动多元化食物资源开发利用,加强食物损耗与浪费监测与评估,为保障国家粮食安全提供有力支撑。
Abstract:
Food security stands as a pivotal pillar of national security. Amid the shift in residents’ food consumption patterns from merely "having enough to eat" to "eating well", the precise alignment of food supply with residents’ nutritional needs and the establishment of a food production structure that mirrors residents’ consumption patterns have become imperative for safeguarding food security. This study takes the current dietary pattern, the recommended pattern in the Chinese Dietary Guidelines, the Japanese dietary pattern, and the Mediterranean dietary pattern as its focal points, analyzing China’s medium and long-term food demands under these varying dietary structures. Building on this analysis, scenarios for dietary structure optimization and food loss reduction across the entire industrial chain are developed to calculate the food demand for each scenario. The findings indicate that by 2035, compared to the current dietary pattern, adopting the recommended pattern in the Chinese Dietary Guidelines, the Japanese dietary pattern, and the Mediterranean dietary pattern could respectively decrease food demand by 101.185 million tons, 27.927 million tons, and 223.323 million tons. Additionally, further optimization of the food structure and efforts to reduce food loss could further lower food demand by over 63 million tons. Consequently, it is essential to implement the "greater food concept" strategy, guide residents towards a reasonable and healthy diet, establish a production statistical framework for "greater grain," promote the development and utilization of diverse food resources, and strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of food loss and waste, thereby providing robust support for the protection of national food security.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2025-1-2。
基金项目:国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国食物系统可持续发展指标评价、实现路径与政策优化研究”(22BGL287)
作者简介:程广燕,女,农业农村部食物与营养发展研究所研究员,博士生导师;王瑞港(通信作者),男,农业农村部食物与营养发展研究所博士生。
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01