[1]朱晶,徐志远,李天祥.“一带”背景下中国对中亚五国农产品出口增长的波动分析[J].南京农业大学学报(社科版),2017,17(05):111-120.
　ZHU Jing,XU Zhiyuan,LI Tianxiang.Fluctuation Analysis on China’s Agricultural Export Growth to Five Central -Asian Countries Under ‘One Belt’ Background[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science),2017,17(05):111-120.
点击复制

“一带”背景下中国对中亚五国农产品出口增长的波动分析()
分享到：

南京农业大学学报（社科版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
17
期数:
2017年05期
页码:
111-120
栏目:
农业经济
出版日期:
2017-09-02

文章信息/Info

Title:
Fluctuation Analysis on China’s Agricultural Export Growth to Five Central -Asian Countries Under ‘One Belt’ Background
作者:
朱晶1; 2;  徐志远1;  李天祥1
1. 南京农业大学 经济管理学院, 江苏 南京 210095;
2. 南京农业大学 中国粮食安全研究中心, 江苏 南京 210095
Author(s):
ZHU Jing1; 2;  XU Zhiyuan1;  LI Tianxiang1
关键词:
中亚五国; 农产品出口; 贸易持续时间; 二元边际; 出口波动
分类号:
F746.12
摘要:
本文利用un comtrade数据库2003-2014年中国对中亚五国HS6位目农产品出口数据，将二元边际与贸易持续时间纳入同一分析框架，探讨中国对中亚五国农产品出口增长的波动问题。研究发现：首先，中国对中亚五国农产品出口增长较不稳定，而这种不稳定性主要源自出口增长的集约边际部分。其次，出口持续时间较短是导致出口增长波动的主要原因，中国对中亚五国出口持续时间均值和中位值仅为5年和3年左右。最后，提高出口持续时间或降低出口产品退出风险率，会在降低出口增长波动的同时实现增长层次的提高；若仅推动每一产品的出口数量的增加，那么虽然使出口层次提高，却会带来更加剧烈的波动。因此相比对集约边际或扩展边际的单方面强调，政府更应注重推动出口风险率的下降，在此基础上保障出口风险率的平稳，这将是未来推动中国对中亚五国农产品出口长期稳定增长的政策方向。
Abstract:
Using the UN Comtrade Data set to extract China’s HS six-digit agricultural product exports to five Central-Asian countries from 2003 to 2014, and linking the dual marginal and trade duration, this pa-per studied the growth fluctuation of agricultural product exported to the five Central-Asian countries.The study found that, first of all, China’s agricultural exported to the five Central-Asian countries were less stable, and the instability was mainly caused by the marginal growth of export growth.Second, the short duration was the main reason leading to export growth fluctuations, and the average and median durations were only five years and 3 years for China’s exports to the five Central-Asian countries.Final-ly, increasing the export duration or reducing the exit risk of export products would increase the growth level while reducing export growth fluctuations; if only the value of each product was promoted, it would cause more intense fluctuations though the export level was improved.Therefore, compared to the previous promoting policies which simply emphasize the intensive marginal or the extensive marginal, governments should focus more on driving down the rate of risks for export, and further guarantee its stability, This will be the future policy direction to promote China’s agricultural export growth to the five Central-Asian countries for long-term stability.

参考文献/References:

[1] Amurgo-Pacheco, Md-Pierola.Patterns of Export Diversification in Developing Countries:Intensive and Extensive Margins[R/OL].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2008.
[2] Kang K.The Path of the Extensive Margin (Export Variety):Theory and Evidence[R].University of California, Da-vis Working Paper,2004.
[3] Eaton J, Eslava M, Kugler M, et al.The Margins of Entry into Export Markets:Evidence from Colombia[J].Mili-tary Medicine,2008:231-272.
[4] Elhanan H, Marc M, Yona R.Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2008,123(2).
[5] Martina L.Deconstructing Gravity:Trade Costs and Extensive and Intensive Margins[R].MPRA Paper, 2008:10230.
[6] 钱学锋, 熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定:经验研究[J].经济研究, 2010(1):65-79.
[7] Hummels D,Klenow P.The Variety and Quality of a Nation’s Exports[J].American Economic Review, 2005, 95(3):704-23.
[8] Besedes T, Prusa T J.Ins, Outs, and the Duration of Trade[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2006,39(1):266-295.
[9] Besedes T, Prusa T J.Product Differentiation and Duration of US Import Trade[J].Journal of International Econom-ics,2006,70(2):339-358.
[10] Brenton P, Saborowski C, Von Uexkull E.What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series,2009.
[11] 邵军.中国出口贸易联系持续期及影响因素分析——出口贸易稳定发展的新视角[J].管理世界,2011(6):24-33.
[12] 郭慧慧,何树全.中国农业贸易关系生存分析[J].世界经济研究,2012(2):51-56.
[13] 陈勇兵,蒋灵多,曹亮.中国农产品出口持续时间及其影响因素分析[J].农业经济问题,2012(11):7-15.
[14] Melitz M J.The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J].Econo-metrica,2003,71(6):1695-725.
[15] Segura-Cayuela R, Vilarrubia J M.Uncertainty and entry into export markets[R].Bank of spain working Paper, 2008:811.
[16] Besedes T, Prusa T J.The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth[J].Journal of Development Economics,2011,96(2):371-379.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-12-20。
基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目"完善国家粮食安全保障体系"（14ZDA038）
作者简介:朱晶,女,南京农业大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师,教育部长江学者特聘教授,E-mail:crys-talzhu@njau.edu.cn;徐志远,男,南京农业大学经济管理学院博士生;李天祥,男,南京农业大学经济管理学院博士生。
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-08-22